[SMM Analysis]Operating Rate Hits Nine-Year Low and Inventory Remains High, High-Grade NPI Imports Down 19.7% MoM in July

According to customs data, China's total imports of nickel pig iron in July 2025 were 835,900 mt in physical content, down 19.7% MoM, with the YoY growth rate narrowing to 1.8%.

According to customs data, China's total imports of nickel pig iron in July 2025 were 835,900 mt in physical content, down 19.7% MoM, with YoY growth narrowing to 1.8%. In terms of metal content, the total imports of nickel pig iron in July amounted to 108,100 mt Ni, down 17.5% MoM and up 6.0% YoY. From January-July, cumulative imports of nickel pig iron reached approximately 6.3933 million mt in physical content, up 24.2% YoY, and about 786,400 mt in metal content, up 20.2% YoY.

Although down MoM, Indonesia still maintained its position as the primary source of imports.

In terms of categories, NPI imports pulled back MoM in July, while FeNi imports continued to increase. NPI imports declined again in July. Although the price of high-grade NPI remained low in July, traders had a stockpiling mentality. However, with ongoing losses, the operating rate of domestic high-grade NPI smelters remained at its lowest level in nearly 9 years, with no significant rebound. From the consumption perspective, as the peak season had not yet arrived, domestic stainless steel production fell for four consecutive months. The domestic market demand for NPI was weak, and social inventory was at a high level compared to the same period, leading to a corresponding decline in the import demand for Indonesian high-grade NPI.

Entering August, with the peak season approaching, high-grade NPI and stainless steel production are expected to recover to some extent. Meanwhile, under the expectation of traditional peak season demand coupled with favorable policies, the demand for high-grade NPI is anticipated to improve. However, from the supply side, according to SMM, most downstream enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the cumulative imports of high-grade NPI from Indonesia continue to increase YoY, leading to high trader inventories and a sustained supply surplus in the high-grade NPI market. Overall, it is expected that China's high-grade NPI imports in August will increase slightly.

FeNi, imports in July reversed course and fell, with the volume of FeNi imports at around 21,700 mt in physical content, down 8.5% MoM and down 23.2% YoY. In terms of importing countries, the main sources in July were New Caledonia, Colombia, South Korea, and Brazil. Among the major importing countries, imports from New Caledonia saw a significant increase, up 61% MoM, while other major countries experienced varying degrees of decline. Entering August, as the peak season approaches, FeNi is also expected to be somewhat stimulated, with total FeNi imports in August forecast to rebound MoM from July.